Whipsawed By The Memphis Under

At the Sweet 16, one of my famously awful calls with the boys at the Palazzo Sports book was the UNDER in the Missouri wipeout of Memphis. My reasoning was rather anecdotal. The floor at the Cardinals cavernous dome looked dead, the players were out of synch, and the shooting backround appeared to create many clunkers. And even though the TOTAL in that game seemed oddly low (142.5) I figured the oddsmakers knew something I didn’t. I was wrong. Loud wrong.

But I was hardly the only one. The bookmakers missed the total by a staggering 51 points themselves (something very rare, mind you) and so did other handicapping experts. This explanation from Kevin O’Neill, a guy I very much respect for his in depth research and thoughtful approach to analyzing point spreads.

Memphis and Mizzou had two of the strongest D's in the country and I figured medium-paced Memphis would do everything they could to slow down their game last night after the scare put into them by Cal State-Northridge, I was intrigued with the under. Researching the games when Calipari coached against Anderson in the Memphis/UAB rivalry showed that these two played slower, lower scoring games than expected. I thought the combination of factors were impressive, so I played the under. It took only 31 minutes for the game to go over the 142.5 we released it at. Memphis D, so strong all season, was easily penetrated by both Cal State-Northridge and Missouri and a lot of CUSA coaches are probably sitting in their office formulating similar game plans for next season right now.

FINAL THOUGHT: That’s why it’s called “gambling” folks. You just never know…

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I was reading a story recently about a man in Nevada who got attacked by Killer Bees. Apparently, he was operating a back hoe, unearthed a giant nest under a boulder, and proceeded to absorb over 1,000 stings! He lived.

Experts, however, said that had the man run to a nearby pond or pool – ala Winnie the Pooh – it would have been a mistake.

Why?

They say, bees can see you under water, and will wait for you there, to attack again when you resurface for air. Instead, experts say you should run as fast, and as far as you can.

Hmmm. I’m skeptical.

Even though this link says basically the same thing, I gotta believe going under water is a good bet. Even if the bees were waiting for me above the surface, I would breach the surface violently like a missile shot from a submarine, flailing my arms and splashing wildly. I would take a big breath with one hand over my mouth and nose to avoid inhaling any bees, and then go back under.

Total attack window for the bees would be maybe 3 seconds, tops. Eventually, I think they would get bored and go home. Or not, then I’d be screwed.

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Many people have emailed asking about the epic story in S.I. last week about how and why pro athletes go broke. Flat… busted.. broke! Here’s the link. I recommend a full read, and then a re-read just to cement in the anecdotes.

Here’s my favorite passage.

(Rocket Ismail detailed his many failed investments…)

It began in the winter of 1991 when he sank $300,000 into the Rock N' Roll Café, a theme restaurant in New England designed to ride the wave of the Hard Rock Cafe and Planet Hollywood franchises. One of his advisers pitched the idea as "fail-proof, with no downsides," Ismail recalls. He never recouped his money and has no idea what became of the restaurant.

Lesson learned? If only. After that Ismail squandered a fortune funding not only that inspirational movie but also the music label COZ Records ("The guy was a real good talker," says Rocket); a cosmetics procedure whereby oxygen was absorbed into the skin ("We were not prepared for the sharks in the beauty industry"); a plan to create nationwide phone-card dispensers ("When I was in college, phone cards were a big deal"); and, recently, three shops dubbed It's in the Name, where tourists could buy framed calligraphy of names or proverbs of their choice ("The main store opened up in New Orleans, but doggone Hurricane Katrina came two months later"). The shops no longer exist.

Bust, Boom and Hope: A Sports Biz Trifecta

As you know, I have talked about the "Sports Bubble" for some time now. Maybe the dynamics are far different from "real" economic bubbles like real estate or dot-com, but I do think that the entire house of corporate cards that pro sports have been built on for 20 years now is crumbling.

My main man Rick Horrow - aka The Sports Professor - has been a weekly contributor on my Fox Sports Radio show the last few years. Rick also runs a sports biz website, and sends out a weekly newsletter hi-lighting the latest sports biz trends.

This week, Rick delivered a very intriquing 3-list trifecta of gloom, hope, and creativity in the sports biz marketplace. Enjoy the list, and visit Rick's site for more.

“BUST”: TOP TEN REASONS THE ARMAGEDDON IS NEAR

1. The MLBPA is challenging a clause in 109 player contracts that requires them to donate money to charitable causes. The grievance is aimed at the 22 clubs with players in question, and seeks to have money that has already been donated refunded by the team.

2. Texas Rangers owner Tom Hicks has confirmed that he will be taking $20 million off the team’s payroll for 2010. Hicks is also looking to add investors for both the Rangers or Dallas Stars.

3. This year’s Forbes billionaire list includes 30% fewer names. Among those dropping off the list are Browns Owner Randy Lerner, Pacers co-Owner Herb Simon, and SMI Chair Bruton Smith.

4. The Skins Game is at risk of not being played in 2009, and according to execs at ESPN, will need major changes in order to survive. The event has had low ratings and little interest in recent years, and now that LG is no longer the title sponsor, one is desperately needed to help keep the Game alive.

5. First and second round tickets for the NCAA Tournament were down 5-10% from last year. In Miami, American Airlines Arena was at only 50% of capacity.

6. Yates Racing has suspended the operations of Travis Kvapil’s No. 28 car because of a lack of sponsorships. RFR President Geoff Smith is not optimistic that sponsors will come for Kvapil this season.

7. Although 90% completed, the opening of Xanadu, a retail and entertainment compound at the Meadowlands Sports Complex, will again be delayed. In addition, construction of the last 10% of the facility is being slowed.

8. Gary Bettman has confirmed that the Phoenix Coyotes are struggling financially and seeking new investors. A recent polling of 300 Glendale residents indicated that 72% of people asked do not care if the team leaves.

9. Montreal Canadians owner George Gillett has retained BMO Capital Markets to look into selling the team. Like many other recent "busts," Gillett is citing the economy as the reason he is considering a sale.

10. Florida International University is cutting their athletics budget by over $1 million, and the cuts will include significant layoffs within the department.


“BOOM”: TOP TEN REASONS THAT PROSPERITY IS RIGHT AROUND THE CORNER

1. The Miami Dade County Commission approved the Marlins’ plans for a new baseball stadium, with construction is set to begin this summer, and the team taking the field in 2012. Ironically, this is 70 years after the WPA funded the Orange Bowl (on the same site) as part of a stimulus package to end the Great Depression.

2. MLB Network is on track to meet Q1 ad revenue projections despite having not received support from any of the league’s 18 official sponsors. MLB partners are expected to contribute financially in the near future.

3. Final figures from the World Baseball Classic showed an 8.7% increase in attendance and 14% more TV viewers than the 2006 event. Critics mostly praised the Classic, especially after Japan’s thrilling 10th inning victory to claim the title.

4. DirecTV has renewed its deal with the NFL to serve as the exclusive satellite provider for out-of-market games. Signed through 2014, DirecTV will give the league $1 billion a year.

5. The USOC and IOC have reached an agreement to negotiate a new revenue-sharing deal. The two committees had been at a stalemate in recent years over how to divide TV and sponsorship money.

6. Despite current economic conditions, Sprint will remain committed to NASCAR through the duration of their contract that ends in 2013.

7. MLS’ Houston Dynamo recently secured 25% of the $80 million necessary to build a new stadium. The new financing will clear the way for the Houston City Council to put the issue on their agenda.

8. The New York Giants are sold out of non-club level PSLs at their new stadium. In all, over 70,000 PSLs have been sold at the New Meadowlands, which is slated to open in 2010.

9. Despite not receiving one of the new MLS franchises, Ottawa Senators owner Eugene Melnyk has confirmed that he will continue to seek a club as the league ponders future expansion. The extra time should allow Melnyk to secure a new stadium deal.

10. Even though the Capitals have increased next year’s ticket prices by 7%, they have still sold 3,500 new season ticket packages. The team has also added 25 new sponsors and expects to make their first-ever profit next season.


“HOPE”: TOP TEN REASONS THAT CREATIVITY IS THE KEY TO ECONOMIC SURVIVAL

1. The Yankees are selling officially licensed sod at NY-area Home Depots. The large patches will put you back $7.50.

2. Rogers Communications is seeking the opinions of fans in deciding whether to play three more Bills games in Toronto. If they move forward with the plan, one additional game will be played in each of the 2010, 2011, and 2012 seasons.

3. Bermuda has signed a $650,000 promotional deal with the Boston Red Sox to increase tourism to the island. They had a similar (yet less expensive) deal with the Mets last season.

4. Coca-Cola has unveiled a new green initiative for the 2010 Vancouver Games. One aspect of the plan includes having workers wear uniforms made from recycled bottles.

5. The NFL is exploring the possibility of allowing sponsor logos on team practice jerseys. The issue was brought up at the NFL owners meetings and further discussions will be held at the league’s May meetings.

6. Golf retailer Golfsmith is promising to refund the price of a Taylor Made driver if Sergio Garcia wins next month’s Masters. The company bought an insurance policy against the odds of Garcia winning the tournament.

7. The NFL is offering Sunday Ticket’s Red Zone Channel to cable providers with the hope of leveraging companies to provide NFL Network to subscribers. The league owned and operated channel is currently available in less than 40 million households.

8. The PGA Tour and NBC will experiment with putting microphones on caddies at this week’s Shell Houston Open, to test audio quality and see if any conversations are TV worthy. None of the test audio will be aired on TV, but if the experiment is deemed a success, the practice could be put into effect soon.

9. Women’s Professional Soccer will allow players to post to their Twitter accounts from the sidelines during the season opener.

10. High-end watchmaker Nubeo has teamed with Kobe Bryant to create a line of “Black Mamba” watches. They will retail from between $21,000 and $285,000.

Even More Fabulous Than I Had Imagined!

I’m back.

“So how was Vegas?”

Fabulous. Did you really need to ask?

Wish you were there, but those who did jump on the Inaugural Czabe Field of 64 promotion got a real treat. A killer rate, on perhaps the swankiest digs on the strip, with a state of the art sports book, and VIP treatment with their favorite radio personality during the Sweet 16.

Thanks to Michael Larragueta of the Palazzo for making this happen. From one Gaucho to another, this was above and beyond even my expectations. I can’t wait to take it to the “next level” in 2010.

There is a Czabecast coming from the boys at SIM (and thanks again, Kirk and Jeff for coming along and doing some filming!) but let me give you some bullet points of the trip.

Believe it or not, I did not play a single hand of blackjack all weekend. Nope. Not one. And it was totally by accident. I was so busy going from the golf course, to my room for a needed 2 hour mid-afternoon nap, to the sportsbook from 4-9 p.m. and then off to various “Performing Arts Centers” or dinner at night, that I didn’t realize this “feat” until I was checking my bags at McCarron International on Saturday afternoon.

My Sweet 16 wagers sucked. I started out 2-0 and then flat out tanked, finishing 0-6 on a variety of sides, totals, and money line plays. My worst calls were the UNDER on Memphis v. Mizzou (an inexplicable 142, which seemed like a trap, so I ran toward the smell and got clobbered!) and Duke -2 vs. Villanova. Xavier money line was still a good play, it just didn’t come home (damn you Levance Fields!). So was Kansas over Michigan State, it’s just that Izzo’s boys laid some seriously suffocating defense on the Jayhawks down the stretch. I played Gonzaga as a money line play only, based purely on my heart. So much for that. Someday, I’ll learn my lesson on the ‘Zags. Carolina was great, and I quickly lost heart when it was apparent that Mark Few had decided to play so up-tempo, that the game resembled a pick-up run at the YMCA. Good night now, you won’t win that one vs. UNC’s studs.

I hesitate to say this too loud, because I want it to remain my new favorite spot, but I owe it to the good folks at the Palazzo. Their sports book is THE BEST I HAVE EVER SEEN in my 14 year history of going to Vegas for the tournament. First, thanks to Jay-Z for not paying his bills on the place and defaulting it back to the Resort. Originally, the whole place was Jay-Z's "40/40 Club" but that agreement went south in a hurry according to my source. Thankfully, he spent the money for HD everything, and it was well worth it. Secondly, they put the main theater screen in the middle of a two-level bar area, with a stadium seating set of risers right in front of it. The lounge chairs and recliners are phenomenally comfortable. Like you should be kicking it in your PAJAMAS while watching the games. Now as you might expect, during big events (football, college basketball) those seats are at a premium, and you must reserve them for a price with the casino. I have no problem with that. Still, you can easily watch the games from the catwalk railings on each side for free. Better yet, the bar/sportsbook has literally HUNDREDS of HDTV’s mounted in every nook and cranny. These are easily viewable from a bunch of seating “clusters” that accommodate your group of homies for drinks, food, and shenanigans. Outside the bar/theater area, there’s two different “windows” where you can make bets or cash tickets. The lines are very manageable, because they designed the sportsbook to be a destination for sports fans, not a big open area that gets crushed by general casino traffic. They did this thing right, in every conceivable way.

Of course, it doesn’t hurt to have connections either! Because my group was riding with The Czabe, we also had a 25 person capacity private room where we lounged in front of 3 different 60-inch plasmas running true HD and both games at once. There was a pool table, a video game machine, and hors’ d’ouvers. From 6-7 p.m. each night, my trip guests drank for free. And drink, they did!

Thanks too to “Drunk Larry” (his nickname, I swear!) from Atlanta, a devoted listener of the Steve Czaban Show on Fox who did the advance scouting on the best HD sports books over Super Bowl weekend. Larry helped hook me up with Larragueta and we just went from there. Larry, you are one serious degenerate. And I love you for it!

The Rhino. My god, the Rhino. There is simply, no place on earth like it. My recommendation is to get there at about 9 p.m. It’ll be stocked with “performers” (all 8’s, 9’s and 10+’s) yet not so crowded that you can’t find a seat. Then take 200 bucks you would have otherwise easily flushed at the craps table in about 20 minutes. Spend 5 of them 20-at-a-time “trying out” some un-restricted free agents at your table. When you find one you like, sign her to the VIP contract for $100 in the back. Repeat as needed. My god, the Rhino!

Phrase of the night: “Horn, tickets, Rhino!” I kept repeating this to my guys as the games wound down on Thursday night. “Horn, tickets, Rhino.” I wanted them focused. Horn. Tickets. Rhino.

Manage your clock. I love my guy Gitter, but he was drinking so hard, so fast, and for so long, that about 9 p.m. on Friday night he went “Blackhawk Down” in the middle of dinner. He got up from his seat, claimed he would be back, and then just disappeared for the night. Booo! I know that taking naps is “gay” in Vegas, but wouldn’t you rather spend two hours in the afternoon recharging for a good hard wild night, than just hitting the wall Dale Sr. style?

Vegas has a new slogan. And you won’t believe how lame it is. “Las Vegas. America’s Affordable Meeting Destination.” Uhhhh huh. No really. Because of politicians successful demonization of Vegas junkets, the whole “What Happens In Vegas…” thing is being phased out by the tourism board. When Citibank cancelled their junket this year, the $1.5 million trip rippled through the local economy. Citi re-routed the junket to San Francisco, and had to pay a $500,000 cancellation fee to MGM Grand, but losing that trip cost many people down the food chain money. Cab drivers, maids, dealers, and the like. And like I said, Citibank still took people to San Fran on a junket. It even cost the company (and thus, taxpayers) more money due to the re-schedule. But hey, it sure did “feel” good, didn’t it, sticking it to evil Las Vegas? Right. Ridiculous.

The Perfect Storm. Vegas is currently being hit with the near perfect storm of economic headwinds. Sub-prime mortgage crisis, recessionary caution from travelers, and political grandstanding. You won’t really notice it walking around the strip, but you will notice how great the rates are, how many free “perks” are being handed out (drink tickets, free appetizer coupons), and how much easier it is to get tee-times on local golf courses. The town will survive and thrive, but it’s gotta hang tough the next 24-36 months.

Plus, they got greedy. After years and years and years of building bigger, fancier hotels. After the same years of nearly 97% occupancy at rack rates, I can understand why so many developers would double down. But guess what, the shoe just turned ice cold. Not like you and I haven’t had that feeling before at the blackjack table, right?

Maybe the worst idea somebody had, was to build on-the-strip condos. Excuse me for having to ask this question, but who the hell would want to OWN a condo on the strip? How many trips to Vegas can you take per year, without the magical feeling wearing thin? Five, six, maybe? So if you go to Vegas 6 times a year, and stayed at the Palazzo for each trip at $250 a night for 3 nights, you are only going to pay about 3 months worth of condo mortgage on a 5-star hotel experience. With no downside, no downpayment, no property taxes, and no need to make your own bed our scrub a toilet. Well, right now the massive City Center condo project is teetering on bankruptcy. MGM stroked a huge check from their own bank account to keep it alive for another few months. The whole thing is a massive eyesore in the dead middle of the strip, has been that way for OVER two years now. Furthermore, it has seriously crimped traffic flow, and the ability to walk the strip. Who knows what will happen when MGM finally runs out of cash on this, but I wish they would either push it to completion, or just demolition the whole thing and write it off.

Finally, a quick re-cap of the golf. We played The Chase at Coyote Springs on Wednesday. Awesome new layout, literally in the middle of nowhere right now. You go up 15 like you are going to Mesquite, and then take a left for like 20 minutes on a desert road. Nicklaus designed, it was in flawless condition. Highly recommend. Wolf Creek on Thursday in sustained 20 mph winds, with gusts to 40 mph. Oh, what fun. Still, a must see course if you have never been there. Awesome. First look at Bali Hai on the south end of the strip. It used to be very, very, very over-priced at about $350 a round in prime time. We got on it at 8 a.m. on Friday for $200. At that price, it’s a very nice course in excellent condition. The holes do tend to look alike, because they had to take a flat piece of desert and make something out of it, but the par-3’s are all very strong. Then on Saturday we played Royal Links, a British Open “knockoff” course about 20 minutes east of town. I was pleasantly surprised. The mounding and heather was quite well replicated. The pot bunkers were authentic and a bitch! Greens were very healthy, and in perfect condition. It didn’t hurt that the weather finally turned nice. By the 11th hole, I peeled off my long sleeve windshirt for the first time all weekend.

All in all, a fabulous trip. I can’t wait for next March!